James In; Sununu Out

A clearer picture begins to form in Michigan and New Hampshire

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Michigan

The anticipated hot open Michigan Governor's campaign came into better focus on Tuesday.

As expected, two-term US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) announced that he will enter the Governor's race, striving to succeed term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D).

Mr. James has twice run statewide. In 2018, he challenged US Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) and then ran again two years later opposite Sen. Gary Peters (D). Mr. James drew national attention in holding Sen. Stabenow to a tighter than expected 52-46% margin spread. In 2020, the political battle ended in even closer fashion, 50-48%, in Sen. Peters' favor. 

The following year redistricting created an open US House seat in his home area. Mr. James would win a half-point 2022 victory over former local judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), and then scored a six-point re-election victory this past November against the same opponent.

The 2026 Michigan Governor's race will likely be unique among all statewide elections in that it has the chance of becoming a legitimate three-way contest. 

On the Republican side, many cast Rep. James as the early front runner for the party nomination even with polling showing a close contest between he and 2022 gubernatorial Republican nominee Tudor Dixon. It is not clear, however, if she will again run for Governor. Former Attorney General Mike Cox is also taking steps to organize a gubernatorial campaign along with state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

The Democrats also have nomination competition. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is an announced candidate, and polling posts her to an early lead. Lieutenant Gov. Garlin Gilchrist recently entered the race, as did Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

The third contender, and one who will advance directly into the general election because he is running as an Independent, is three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. The municipal chief executive was first elected in 2013 and subsequently re-elected in 2017 and 2021. It was a surprise when he entered the race, not because he became a statewide candidate but for declaring as an Independent. Previously, he had run as a Democrat. 

With Mr. Duggan having an obvious political base in Detroit, the state's largest city, a potential Benson-James-Duggan race is set to become the wild card race of the 2026 national election cycle.

New Hampshire

Saying he believes the Republicans have a strong chance to win the open New Hampshire US Senate seat in 2026, former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) put an end to the public speculation that he may become a candidate. Mr. Sununu said it is not the right time for him to run for the Senate, which is consistent with his action when Republican leaders previously approached him about launching a Senate campaign.

Former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown (R), who moved to New Hampshire after he was defeated for re-election in 2012, challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) two years later. The three-term incumbent, who has already announced her retirement when the current Congress adjourns, defeated Mr. Brown, 51-48%. It is apparent that the former Massachusetts Senator is intent on running again.

Frank Edelblut, Commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education, is also a potential candidate. Then-Gov. Sununu originally appointed him to his current position and the new Governor, former US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R), kept him in place. Ex-White House aide and two-time congressional candidate Matt Mowers is another Republican potential candidate. For now, however, it appears that former Sen. Brown is the front runner for the party nomination.

Late last week, four-term US Rep. Chris Pappas of Manchester announced his intention to run and appears as the clear frontrunner for his party's nomination. He has a strong chance of becoming a consensus Democratic candidate.   

It was obvious that recruiting former Gov. Sununu would give the Republicans their best chance of converting this Senate seat. It remains to be seen how competitive the Republicans can be against Rep. Pappas, but sans Sununu the Democrats regain the early advantage.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

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