A mystifying Michigan political poll
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The Target Insyght data organization, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS), has released a new Wolverine State political survey, and the results are head-scratching to say the least.
The March 3-6 survey of 600 Michigan registered voters produced results that are difficult to understand. While having a general election sampling universe comprised equally of Democrats and Republicans, it is unusual to see a Secretary of State – Jocelyn Benson (D) in this case – posting a surprising 84% name identification while three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I), who led a turnaround of a troubled city, recording only a 58% recognition factor.
Another conclusion finds Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) showing a 52:43% positive-to-negative personal favorability index, while former Congressman and 2024 US Senate Republican nominee Mike Rogers is found with a rather dismal and inexplicable 23:46% index – this, from a sample fully half of which is comprised of Republican voters.
Yet, when the same sample was polled for a hypothetical open Senate contest between Gov. Whitmer and former Rep. Rogers, the ballot test result projected only a one-point 42-41% edge for the Democratic Governor. Comparing the favorability indexes for each candidate with the head-to-head ballot test result produces a highly inconsistent conclusion that brings the overall poll accuracy factor into question.
Parenthetically, Ms. Whitmer has made no mention of having a desire to run for the state's open Senate seat now that Democratic incumbent Gary Peters has announced he will not seek re-election. Instead, it is obvious that she is looking to build a presidential organization for the 2028 open national campaign.
Though Mr. Rogers' favorability index is a net minus 23 points, he still fares well on other individual ballot tests. In 2024, Mr. Rogers lost to now-Senator Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes from just under 5.6 million cast ballots statewide. The aggregate polling also did not correctly depict the closeness of the end result, since Mr. Rogers trailed by a mean average of 2.3 percentage points and led in only one of 13 surveys conducted in late October through the November 2024 election.
In the current Target Insyght poll, Mr. Rogers trails former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D) by two percentage points, 46-44%. Using the two-point under poll factor that we saw develop in the 2024 Senate campaign, the Buttigieg-Rogers race likely devolves into a dead heat. Again, this is a much different result than one would expect when looking at the personal favorability numbers.
The Governor's ballot test result is also questionable. According to the TI data, Secretary of State Benson would lead US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) and Mayor Duggan, 42-30-21% in a hypothetical open general election campaign.
This is an odd result since one would think Mr. Duggan, a Democrat until he announced as an Independent to run for Governor, would be drawing more from the Democratic base, especially in Detroit, than the Republican sector. Therefore, this split, meaning the Republican candidate is only getting 30% when the sampling universe is split 50/50, seems unrealistic.
Additionally, the Benson favorability index is 49:35% positive-to-negative as compared to Mayor Duggan's 42:16%. This is further evidence that the ballot test result is contradictory with the personal favorability factors when seeing the latter ratio is a net 12 percentage points better than the former.
The Democratic gubernatorial figures also seem weighted in Ms. Benson's favor. Here, she leads Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrest, Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson by a 55-12-12-3% spread. Pitted against two other statewide office holders, and one would guess the name ID metric is similar for all three, it is again surprising to see Ms. Benson holding such a commanding lead.
Obviously, the Michigan political situation will change greatly between today and late next year and we will see many polls of the Wolverine State races. It is likely that the many inconsistencies found in this Target Insyght poll will be rectified through further research.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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