House Overview – Part I

Revving up for the 2026 House election cycle

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Already we have seen developments occur in key 2026 House election cycle campaigns. Over the next four days, we will recap the action. Today, we look at districts in Alaska through Colorado; tomorrow, Florida to Minnesota. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

At this point, it appears there are 49 races in the competitive category. Republicans currently hold 26 of the seats and Democrats 23. Therefore, we can expect another tight election cycle.

Alaska

AK-At-large 

While polling again suggests another dead heat race for at-large freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) if former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) were to return for a re-match, it appears such a contest will not materialize. It is highly likely that Ms. Peltola will enter the state’s open Governor’s race.

Arizona

AZ-1 

In November, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) defeated state Rep. Amish Shah (D) 52-48%. Already, Dr. Shah, former news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galen-Woods (D) and businessman Jonathan Treble (D) have announced their candidacies. A competitive Democratic primary and general election is on the horizon for this Maricopa County congressional seat.

AZ-6 

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) and did so with a 50-47% margin. Ms. Engel stated that she will not return for a third congressional race. Retired Marine Corps Sergeant JoAnna Mendoza (D) has already raised over $800,000 for her announced campaign. She reports over $726,000 cash-on-hand, while Rep. Ciscomani posts over $1.2 million in his campaign account. This will again be a highly competitive national congressional campaign.

AZ-7 

The special general election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) is scheduled for September 23. The determinative battle, however, will be the July 15 Democratic primary. Though five candidates have filed for the party primary, the race is realistically between Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. This district will not be competitive in the 2026 regular election. 

California

CA-3 

Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) was re-elected to a second term with 55% of the vote in November. He has drawn a significant Democratic opponent for 2026. Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall (D) announced that she will enter the ’26 campaign. Her constituency represents approximately 15% of the district population.

CA-9

Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy) defeated Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) by a slight 52-48% margin in 2024. Mr. Lincoln says he is considering returning for a re-match but has not yet announced his 2026 candidacy. Rep. Harder already reports over $2.2 million in his campaign war chest.

CA-13

This district hosted the closest House race in the entire country last year, as now-Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) defeated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. Republicans appear to have their act together for 2026. They have recruited Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez (R) into the developing contest. Mr. Duarte has already announced that he will not return for a re-match and endorsed Mr. Lopez. Rep. Gray had a weak 1st Quarter from a fundraising perspective. He posts only $344,000 in his campaign account. 

CA-22 

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic seat in the nation to elect a Republican to the House. In November, he again defeated former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), this time, 53-47%. Mr. Salas may return for a third run but has not yet announced his intentions. Visalia School Board Trustee Randy Villegas (D) is a declared candidate and says he will remain in the race irrespective of what Mr. Salas decides. In 2026, this will again be a top national congressional campaign.

CA-41 

The Inland Empire will again feature a competitive race for 17-term Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona), but he will have a different general election opponent. Democratic former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who ran two close races against the veteran Congressman, has already announced that he will not return for a third run. Democrats have recruited Grammy Award winning musician Tim Myers in his place.

CA-45 

Freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) defeated then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by just 683 votes, making it the second closest congressional race in the country. Ms. Steel immediately filed a 2026 FEC committee upon her defeat but only raised a little over $74,000 in the 1st Quarter. She has over $942,000 in her campaign account, however. Therefore, we are likely to see another highly competitive Tran-Steel contest here in 2026. For his part, Rep. Tran posted just over $547,000 in his campaign committee.

CA-49 

Four-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) defeated Republican Matt Gunderson 52-48% in November but is likely to face a stronger opponent in 2026. San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is an announced candidate and only one of two Republican US House challengers nationwide to raise over $400,000 in the 1st Quarter. Though the Orange County candidates have dominated this district in recent elections, San Diego County holds 2/3 of the CD’s residents. Therefore, this should be a race to watch in 2026.

Colorado

CO-8 

The politically marginal 8th District of Colorado that lies north and east of Denver will perennially be on the competitive House race list. In 2022, Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the seat with 48% of the vote. In 2024, Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans unseated her with 49 percent. Another tough race is in store for what will always be a vulnerable incumbent. 

Ms. Caraveo has announced she will return for a rematch but must first get past state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) to secure the party nomination. Mr. Rutinel posted impressive fundraising numbers in the 1st Quarter, attracting more than $1.2 million in support. Therefore, we can expect to see a hot Democratic primary and general election here in 2026.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

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