Key 2026 battlefield beginning to take shape
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Today, we conclude our report about state political developments affecting the 2026 campaign cycle and how House member electoral moves could be influenced.
Minnesota
Senator Tina Smith’s (D) surprise retirement announcement could trigger a major Democratic primary battle between two of the state’s top office holders. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has already indicated she plans to enter the open Senate campaign, but apparently Gov. Tim Walz is likewise contemplating his chances for such a race.
Because Minnesota has no term limits anchored to its statewide offices, Gov. Walz could run for a third term. This unfolding situation makes the Minnesota open Senate race one of the nation’s top early campaigns.
On the Republican side, both House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano) and Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth) say they will not run for the Senate.
New Hampshire
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) is in-cycle but has yet to say whether she will seek a fourth term next year. The Senator indicates a decision will be forthcoming in the next few months. Looking at her largely bipartisan votes on the Trump cabinet appointments suggests she may be leaning toward running.
If Sen. Shaheen decides to retire, look for Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) to run for the Senate. Freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) is another possibility, but Mr. Pappas would be the more likely to seek and win the Democratic nomination.
New Jersey
The Garden State hosts its gubernatorial election this year and two House members are running for the post. Since this is an odd-year election, neither Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) nor Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) must risk their seat to run statewide.
Should one of them be elected Governor, a special congressional election will be called to fill the balance of the vacated term. Republicans would be more competitive in the Gottheimer seat, but special elections in either district would be contested.
New York
Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is running for re-election, and her statewide campaign effort looks to have a major effect upon the Empire State US House delegation. US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has made no secret that he is analyzing his chances of defeating Gov. Hochul in the June 2026 Democratic primary. With the Governor possessing low approval ratings, Rep. Torres’ impending challenge is regarded as serious.
On the Republican side, two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is also assessing a Governor’s bid. Again, because Hochul appears weak, the eventual Republican nominee is projected to be in a more competitive position than for a typical election. Should Mr. Lawler leave his House district (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating D+7) the Democrats would have the inside track toward converting the seat.
Later this year, the state’s northeastern 21st District will go to special election once Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations. Republicans would be favored to hold the seat, but Democrats captured this district in a 2009 special election after then-Rep. John McHugh (R) resigned to become Secretary of the Army. The local Democratic county chairs have already selected dairy farmer Blake Gendebien as their special election nominee. Republicans have yet to designate their candidate.
South Carolina
Governor Henry McMaster (R), now the longest serving state chief executive in South Carolina history, is ineligible to seek a third full term next year. Mr. McMaster’s exit will leave a crowded and competitive open Republican gubernatorial primary. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), look to be sure candidates.
In the House delegation, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirms she is also considering running for Governor, while Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) indicates that he is contemplating challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the Republican Senate primary.
South Dakota
Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned her position to become US Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Upon her leaving office, Lt. Governor Larry Rhoden (R) ascended to the Governorship. While Mr. Rhoden remains noncommittal about running for a full term, reports indicate that at-large US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is making plans to run for Governor irrespective of whether the new incumbent becomes a candidate.
Should Rep. Johnson enter the statewide race, the June Republican primary for the open House seat would feature a crowded field. The eventual GOP nominee would then become a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.
Tennessee
For a time, it seemed that we would see multiple Republican US House members entering the Governor’s race to succeed term-limited incumbent Bill Lee (R). When Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) began making moves to join the Governor’s field the situation changed. Now, it appears that only Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) may be an impediment to Sen. Blackburn’s apparent quest for the gubernatorial nomination.
Initially, it seemed that Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) and possibly Diana Harshbarger (R-Kingsport) were all considering becoming statewide candidates. If Rep. Rose ultimately decides to run for Governor, a crowded plurality Republican primary would decide his successor in the 6th Congressional District. As candidate filing approaches in April of 2026, the race will become better defined.
Texas
At this point, most of the Texas political attention surrounds whether Attorney General Ken Paxton will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary. With Gov. Greg Abbott (R) saying he will run for a fourth term, it appears the rest of the Republican field will be frozen.
Should Paxton run for the Senate, we will see a crowded primary form for state Attorney General. Possibly the only Republican House member who might have interest in running for this statewide post is veteran Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin). It remains to be seen if any of the Democratic House members would show interest in an Attorney General’s campaign.
Vermont
Though Vermont has become one of the most reliable of Democratic states, Republican Gov. Phil Scott has won five consecutive two-year terms. It won’t be known until much closer to the next election whether the Governor will run for a sixth term, but if he retires Democrats are virtually assured of capturing the office.
It would be quite likely that at-large Rep. Becca Balint (D-Brattleboro) would seek the party nomination for Governor. If so, we would again see a crowded and competitive Democratic primary for the state’s singular House seat.
Wisconsin
Governor Tony Evers (D) is eligible to run for a third term and has hinted that he will do so. Several Republican House members have at one time or another been considered as having statewide aspirations. They are: Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) and Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua). Once Gov. Evers makes public his political intentions, more will become known about potential opponents.
Wisconsin has a late primary beginning with a candidate filing deadline in June of 2026. Therefore, expect the Wisconsin House delegation to be in flux for quite some time.
Wyoming
Governor Mark Gordon (R) is term limited in 2026, but the courts have seemingly left the door open for a legal challenge to the Wyoming election law. It is unclear at this point if Gov. Gordon will contest the law and attempt to run for a third term.
At-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) is reportedly a potential Republican candidate regardless of Gov. Gordon’s electoral status. If she risks the House seat, we will see a highly competitive GOP primary develop with the winner becoming the prohibitive favorite for the general election.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
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Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
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