Key 2026 battlefield beginning to take shape
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Open races for Governor and, in some cases, Senator, have already led to anticipated movement in the US House delegations. Today, we look at action from half the country. Tomorrow, Part II.
Alaska
Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and most of the early political speculation involves defeated US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and what might be her next political move. Ms. Peltola says she's been getting encouragement to run for Governor, or even against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), or to seek a re-match with freshman Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak). The former Congresswoman jokingly said this week, "I might run for all three!"
In reality, her best chance for victory would be in the open Governor's race. Expect her to enter that battle, which leaves Rep. Begich in a much stronger position for re-election.
Arizona
Representative Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is already making moves to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). It appears, however, that he will first face 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary. Ms. Robson already has an endorsement from President Trump. Still, Rep. Biggs begins with an early polling lead. Arizona's 5th District is safely Republican. Therefore, we can expect to see a crowded and competitive Republican primary in late July of 2026.
Largely due to health reasons, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced even before the end of last year that he would not seek re-election in 2026. His retirement will yield a contested Democratic primary in a seat that stretches from just southeast of Tucson along the Mexican border all the way to California.
Colorado
Governor Jared Polis (D) is term-limited in 2026, and his lame duck status is igniting a round of political musical chairs.
Two Democratic members of the House delegation are likely to run for Governor. Representatives Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), who is staked to small early Democratic primary polling leads, and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) are both testing the waters for a statewide run. Should both enter the Governor's race, we will see hotly contested Democratic primaries in Districts 2 and 6. Each seat is safely Democratic, so the major political action will be in the June primary.
Connecticut
Governor Ned Lamont (D) could run for a third term, but has said he won't make a decision about his electoral future until after the legislative session ends halfway through this year. The most likely House member to make a statewide move should Gov. Lamont decide to retire is Rep. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob). If the Governor runs again, which is likely, expect no movement in the Connecticut congressional delegation.
Florida
Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but his wife, Casey DeSantis, is sending signals that she may run. Representative Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has opened with a big polling lead in surveys that have not yet included Ms. DeSantis. Should Rep. Donalds run for Governor, he will leave a crowded Republican primary in his wake.
The 19th District, however, is strongly Republican, so don't expect the Democrats to contest the seat in the general election.
Two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) was threatening, before Gov. DeSantis chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace now Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate, to primary the appointed Senator. His rhetoric has been less intense since Ms. Moody took the seat, so it remains to be seen if Rep. Mills launches a primary challenge. If the 7th District opens, expect a highly-competitive Republican primary followed by a moderately contested general election.
Georgia
It appears we will see a great deal of action in the Peach State next year. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) cannot succeed himself, but he may challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).
Irrespective of Gov. Kemp's plans, his position will be open. Already four House members, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) have discussed running statewide either for Governor or Senator. Most would defer to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run for the Senate. Depending upon eventual circumstances, we could see wholesale change within the Georgia Republican House delegation.
For the Democrats, largely due to health problems, Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is expected to either retire or face a difficult Democratic primary challenge. State Senator Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), who has won 11 elections to his current state legislative seat, has already declared his intent to run for Congress in 2026. This guarantees that a highly competitive Democratic primary will commence irrespective of whether Rep. Scott seeks re-election.
Kansas
Governor Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the focus will be upon those vying to succeed her. National Democratic leaders would like to see four-term US Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) run for Governor, but it is unclear whether Rep. Davids, who has secured what had been, heretofore, a marginal political seat, will risk her current position to run statewide as an underdog in reliably red Kansas. No Republican House member is expected to run statewide.
Kentucky
Representative Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has already expressed interest in running for the Senate if former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) announces his retirement as expected. Mr. Barr is likely to face ex-Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary.
Democrats are attempting to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear for the Senate race, so Kentucky will become a very interesting political state in 2026. Should Rep. Barr run statewide, his 6th District would become moderately competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to hold the seat.
Maine
Governor Janet Mills (D) is another of the term limited Governors, and as such all eyes are on four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) to see if he will make the move into the open statewide race. At this point, Mr. Golden is non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He survived a close 2024 re-election battle with former NASCAR driver and then-state Representative Austin Theriault (R).
Therefore, the Congressman would very likely face a competitive re-match should he decide to seek re-election if he eschews a bid for Governor.
Michigan
For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) is another of the term limited state chief executives, and Sen. Gary Peters (D) has already announced his retirement. Representative John James (R-Farmington Hills) leads all Republicans in polling for the open Governor's office and is expected to again run statewide.
Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) have been tested in Senate polling, but neither fare well. Despite two major statewide openings, it is probable that Rep. James, at least at this time, is the only House member willing to risk his seat for a statewide bid.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
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Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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