Here We Go Again

Déjà vu in the Cornhusker State?

If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.

The 2024 election cycle featured a Nebraska US Senate race that was billed as a potential upset, but failed as Election Day approached. That same losing Independent candidate looks to be returning in 2026, and a new poll suggests a repeating pattern.

In 2024, Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I) received a great deal of national political attention because the polls were consistently showing him running ahead or even with Sen. Deb Fischer (R) for most of the campaign cycle. 

In fact, from late September through the election, 12 polls were released of the Nebraska Senate race and Osborn led in seven. This, despite the electorate not voting for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Additionally, GOP nominees for Senator and Governor averaged 60.4% of the vote since 2006, which was the last time a Democratic Senator (Ben Nelson) or Governor was on the Cornhusker State ballot.

Mr. Osborn did well because the Democrats, once the Independent demonstrated he was a legitimate contender, decided not to file their own candidate. They were comfortable in supporting Osborn because he is generally in ideological alignment with the Democratic platform.

In the end, Sen. Fischer won re-election with a comfortable six-point margin and carried 91 of the state’s 93 counties. 

Nebraska polling was inconsistent during the 2024 election cycle. The pollsters correctly predicted an easy Donald Trump victory and former Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state’s 2nd Congressional District but largely missed the Senate race until the very end, while projecting Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) to be running consistently behind even though he again won a close re-election. 

Now, a new Change Research poll finds another Nebraska US Senate dead heat result, this time between Mr. Osborn and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). The recent CR data result (3/28-4/1; 524 NE likely 2026 general election voters; online through Survey Monkey) projects Sen. Ricketts holding only a 46-45% lead over Mr. Osborn.

The Senator also posted an upside-down favorability index. According to the CR survey, only 38% of the respondents hold a favorable view of Mr. Ricketts, while 45% have an unfavorable impression. The same sample, however, rates President Trump with a 55:43% positive index.

The favorability numbers fly in the face of the November election returns where Sen. Ricketts, after being appointed to his seat in 2023, recorded a 63-37% election victory to serve the balance of the current term. He now must run again in order to clinch a full six-year stint. 

The favorability responses for Trump and Ricketts are highly conflicting and certainly eyebrow raising in reference to the latter man. While the President records an 89% positive rating among the self-identified Republican respondents, and a 70% very favorable, Sen. Ricketts only posts 62% favorable among the same cell and a very low 29% very favorable mark. This, for a man the Nebraska Republicans have twice overwhelmingly nominated for Governor and once as Senator. 

Though Change Research is a reputable pollster, Survey Monkey has proven unreliable. CR employing the Survey Monkey platform is a new methodological factor for the firm, so this particular poll’s reliability must be questioned. Both the current CR ballot test and favorability index in relation to Sen. Ricketts are not consistent with his strong historical electoral performance. 

Additionally, the poll also assumes the Nebraska Democrats will not file their own Senate candidate in 2026 and back Mr. Osborn by default, as they did in 2024. So far this year, Osborn says he is considering several options which could mean challenging Sen. Ricketts, Gov. Jim Pillen (R) or Rep. Bacon. At this point, he seems to be focusing on Sen. Ricketts, but that may change since plenty of time remains before the state’s March 2026 candidate filing deadline.

For their part, the Democratic leadership has not openly committed to again supporting Mr. Osborn. They are likely to do so if he chooses to run against Ricketts, and possibly Gov. Pillen, but the party leaders have been cool to the idea of not filing their own candidate against Rep. Bacon in a politically marginal 2nd Congressional District where a Democrat can win. 

Both ex-President Biden and Ms. Harris carried the NE-2 against President Trump in 2020 and 2024, respectively, yet Rep. Bacon was able to reverse the top-of-the-ticket trend in both of those years to secure re-election.

While Dan Osborn is likely to generate favorable polling responses in a two-way race with Sen. Ricketts and will attract a great deal in the way of campaign resources, electoral history and voting patterns again suggest that Sen. Ricketts should still enjoy a strong re-election run next year.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.

Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.

Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty