Senior US Senator from Tennessee moves closer to gubernatorial run
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As signs increasingly suggest that Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is serious about running for Governor in 2026, new polling data indicate that she may enjoy an easy path toward attaining the state house mansion in Nashville.
A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be her budding gubernatorial campaign. According to the Jan. 13-16 Fabrizio Lee data, Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13% margin in an early Republican primary poll.
The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Trump would endorse Ms. Blackburn. If so, the spread then becomes 78-11%. To underscore Sen. Blackburn's strength against Rep. Rose, she outpolls him even in the Congressman's own district. In the 6th CD, Sen. Blackburn would top Mr. Rose, 55-27%.
Additionally, Sen. Blackburn's favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.
Furthermore, Sen. Blackburn's electoral history is strong. She was re-elected to a second Senatorial term on November 5th with a 64-34% margin. In 2018, she won her first statewide campaign in a 55-44% victory spread. Prior to running for the Senate, Ms. Blackburn served eight terms in the House from western Tennessee's 7th District. In her eight elections, she averaged 73.9% of the vote, reaching or breaking the 70% threshold in six of her eight campaigns.
Other House members were reportedly looking at the Governor's race, but Sen. Blackburn's intentions are likely to dissuade them from running. In addition to Congressman Rose, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) had all been mentioned at one time or another as having an interest in exploring the Governor's race.
No major potential candidate has officially announced his or her intentions as yet, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to run for Governor until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals about her interest. Her Senate campaign airing post-election thank you ads is even further evidence that Ms. Blackburn is clearly heading toward a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate.
With polling data such as described, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor's race; and, in clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.
Governor Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the Governorship, she would be able to appoint her own Senate successor since Tennessee is one of 36 states where the Governor can appoint an individual to fill a Senate vacancy.
If Ms. Blackburn were to become Governor and obviously resign from the Senate, her appointed federal designee would serve until the 2028 general election. If the individual wins the special election to fill the balance of the term, he or she would next face the voters in 2030 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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