A fluke, or an anti-Trump trend?
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Earlier this year, Iowa Democrat Mike Zimmer made national news by flipping a Republican state Senate seat in a special election. Now another, similar, situation has unfolded this week in the Keystone State.
On Tuesday, Democrat James Malone won a Pennsylvania state Senate election in Lancaster County, where the electorate hadn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won a full presidential term back in 1964.
The question being asked is whether this is a budding trend, or whether it simply occurred because Republicans failed to turn out enough of their much larger base of conservative/right-of-center voters.
In each case, the elections were close. In Iowa, Sen. Zimmer won his seat by 338 votes (or a 3.6 percentage margin from a total turnout of 9,305 voters). In Pennsylvania, Mr. Malone defeated Republican John Parsons by a similar 482 votes within a universe of 53,900 cast ballots (a margin of just under nine-tenths of one percentage point).
Neither upset victory caused the Republicans to lose their majority in the respective state Senate body, but the media is spinning the results as a rejection symptom of the national Trump agenda.
In special elections, especially after a major national vote, it is rather commonplace to see the losing party begin to rebound in low turnout balloting events. Therefore, such a pattern has certainly been witnessed before, but it is not a positive story for the previous election winners, and especially this year, when the two 2025 special elections were held in seats that typically vote strongly Republican.
The departing legislators in each case were Republican stalwarts. In Iowa, the 35th Senate District, which is anchored in Clinton County and hugs the Illinois border just north of the Quad Cities region, was open because the previous incumbent, Chris Cournoyer (R), was appointed Lt. Governor to fill a vacancy in that office.
In the Pennsylvania district that is fully contained within northern Lancaster County, the previous incumbent, Ryan Aument (R), resigned after being appointed as state director for new US Senator David McCormick (R-PA).
On Wednesday, we covered the situation pertaining to the two Florida congressional elections that will be decided on Tuesday. There, the Democratic candidates in wholly Republican districts, one anchored in Pensacola and the other in Daytona Beach, have heavily outraised their Republican opponents by a combined ratio of better than 5:1. Should an upset occur in either one of those districts, we will see a repeat performance of the media coverage regarding the two state Senate flips, but to a much greater degree.
Florida's 1st District, from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned, looks secure for state CFO Jimmy Patronis (R) despite him being outspent. Though Mr. Patronis does not live in the 1st CD, he is a well known figure in the Florida Panhandle as a major restaurateur, and he has been on the ballot throughout the district as a statewide elected official.
The 6th CD, the district that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz previously represented, is also strongly Republican, but GOP candidate Randy Fine, a state Senator from Melbourne, represents a state legislative seat two CDs and a minimum of 100 miles away, which means there is no crossover representation between his Senate seat and the 6th Congressional District. Being a lesser known candidate may make it somewhat more difficult to convince Republican voters to participate in an irregular election.
Additionally, the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race that will determine the partisan majority on that high court and could have congressional redistricting ramifications, will also be decided Tuesday.
Here, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford (D) has raised more than $26 million for her statewide campaign, almost double the total of her opponent, Republican former state Attorney General Brad Schimel. Elon Musk has come to Schimel's rescue to largely even the score on the airwaves. Therefore, this will be another important race to watch on April 1. Though the judicial races are nonpartisan, this campaign has been fought on very partisan grounds.
It appears that Tuesday's election will carry more national significance than one might have originally guessed.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Editor's note:
HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.
Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.
We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.
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Stephen Wynne
Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty
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