Dems appear vulnerable
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While the 2026 Senate map favors the Democrats when examining the ratio of each party's offensive opportunities – Republicans must defend 22 seats as opposed to just 13 for the Democrats – in the early going, we see three Democratic states already moving into the vulnerability realm.
It was assumed that both parties would begin the cycle tasked with at least one obvious defensive campaign: in North Carolina for the Republicans (Sen. Thom Tillis is running for re-election) and in Georgia for the Democrats.
Three Peach State polls, all conducted since the first of the year, were recently released. The most current, a Feb. 11-13 survey from Quantas Insights, again slotted Gov. Brian Kemp (R) running ahead of first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). According to the ballot test, Gov. Kemp held a 48-45% edge.
As for the two other polls, a Jan. 30-31 Tyson Group survey posted Gov. Kemp to a 49-42% advantage, while a Jan. 14-15 WPA Intelligence study also found Gov. Kemp topping Sen. Ossoff, 46-40%.
In other ballot tests within the same polling questionnaires, Sen. Ossoff was paired with potential Republican candidates other than Gov. Kemp. The Senator led in all instances with a range between eight and 16 percentage points. At this point, Gov. Kemp has not yet confirmed that he will run for the Senate.
Within the past three weeks, two surprising announcements were made that significantly changed the 2026 Senate election cycle. On Jan. 29, Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) unexpectedly announced that he would not seek re-election. Two weeks later, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) also declared her intention to retire at the end of the current Congress.
Considering the 2024 Michigan Senate race was decided by just 19,008 votes, and with a Senate and Governor's race both in open status simultaneously for the first time in the Wolverine State's modern political era, the 2026 statewide races are expected to be hot targets.
Michigan's EPIC-MRA polling firm quickly went into the field after the Peters announcement and found former US Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican 2024 Senate candidate who came within three-tenths of one percentage point of victory, leading former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by a 47-41% count. Mr. Buttigieg is running substantially ahead of prospective Democratic candidates in early primary polling.
The Minnesota situation is quite different. While we haven't yet seen any definitive polling, we are witnessing the potential of top Democratic elected officials squaring off against each other to run for the open Senate seat.
Lieutenant Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the first to declare her candidacy. Governor Tim Walz, who is eligible to run for a third term, is also expressing interest in the Senate seat. Yesterday, it was reported in the Down Ballot political blog that Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), giving no indication that she would yield to either Gov. Walz or Lt. Gov. Flanagan, is confirming her interest in possibly becoming a Senate candidate.
Therefore, should this high level multi-candidate Democratic primary develop, such a campaign could become divisive. In an August primary with a short general election cycle, it is probable that the eventual nominee would be more vulnerable than usual in a Minnesota general election campaign.
While other offensive opportunities will certainly open for Senate Democrats in other states, the beginning of this new election cycle has already provided the GOP with some apparent early breaks.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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