Testing Florida's factions
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The first poll testing a potentially major battle between two national conservative movement factions was just released.
The impending open Florida Republican gubernatorial primary could feature the state’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis, whose incumbent husband Ron DeSantis is ineligible to seek a third term, and US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples), who already carries President Trump's endorsement.
At this point, Rep. Donalds is an announced gubernatorial candidate, while Ms. DeSantis has yet to declare her intentions. Governor DeSantis, however, has publicly hinted that she is at least considering running.
The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm went into the field to provide an early read on such a race. Their Feb. 26-27 poll (released March 10), sees Rep. Donalds jumping out to a slight 34-30% lead over Ms. DeSantis. An additional three percent would support Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, who is also a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate.
The results get even more interesting when the respective endorsements are filtered. When the respondents are informed that President Trump publicly supports Rep. Donalds, the ballot test soars to 45-23% in the Congressman's favor.Â
The contest changes when further information is shared. It is certainly not surprising that Gov. DeSantis would endorse his wife, but when the respondents are told that he will, the ballot test flips. The altered result projects Ms. DeSantis moving ahead of Rep. Donalds, 35-33%.
The caveat relating to the previous push question is the respondents were told of Gov. DeSantis' endorsement of his wife prior to being informed of President Trump's support for Rep. Donalds, and this situation is highlighted in the Fabrizio Lee analysis.Â
When all of the endorsement information is presented to the sampling universe, Rep. Donalds reassumes the lead at 38-28% over Ms. DeSantis with Mr. Simpson increasing to 5% support. Therefore, it is this last ballot test that should be considered the benchmark for future monitoring of this proposed race.
Whether this campaign actually transpires is another question. Ms. DeSantis has certainly not committed to running and is likely a long way from making a final decision. The 2026 Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, with a state candidate filing deadline of June 12. Therefore, much time remains to contemplate whether she will become an official candidate.
Certainly, the DeSantis decision involves more than calculating victory chances for the First Lady to succeed her husband. Since Ron DeSantis has national ambitions, the political analysis will involve just how much risk the family wants to assume in entering a campaign where a DeSantis could lose to a Trump endorsed opponent.
At this point, the early presidential political climate doesn't appear to positively favor a return appearance for Gov. DeSantis despite what should be his appealing record of accomplishment for a conservative voter base.
Since Vice President J.D. Vance is already considered the leading prospect to succeed President Trump as the next Republican nominee, he will be in an extremely strong position to capture the party nomination unless things go badly for the Administration toward the end of their current term.
Therefore, the 2028 presidential playing field will also factor heavily in deciding whether Casey DeSantis runs for Governor in 2026. In any event, we can expect to see the Donalds-DeSantis political drama continue over the next several months.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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