Donalds Moving Fast

Early clinching?

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Photo credit: Florida Phoenix

The open Florida Governor’s race could be a 2026 campaign that attracts a great deal of national political attention, but the most recent moves suggest the contest may instead be headed for an early clinching.

Florida US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is strategically moving quickly in an attempt to freeze Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis from entering the open Governor’s race. Mr. Donalds’ fast action is designed to secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination long before the state’s August 2026 primary election.

In announcing a new set of public endorsements, Rep. Donalds, currently serving his third term in the House, brandishes support from some of the nation and state’s top Republicans including 11 of the 19 Florida GOP House members in addition to himself. 

His list of key political endorsements includes President Trump, Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R), and Sunshine State US Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville), newly elected Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach), Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), Dan Webster (R-Clermont), Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota), Scott Franklin (R-Lakeland), Brian Mast (R-Fort Pierce), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami) and Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami).

Perhaps most important from the group of House members is Rep. Lee, who is the only member of the delegation to back Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign over that of President Trump. 

Clearly Donalds’ endorsement strategy is designed to gather so much early public support that Ms. DeSantis, assuming she is still testing the political waters to succeed her term-limited husband, will see that the path to the nomination is too steep to traverse.

The most recent elections and voter registration data suggests winning the Republican primary is now almost tantamount to also securing the general election. Since 2018, Florida, along with Ohio and West Virginia, have moved significantly to the ideological right, while Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico have moved similarly leftward.

To give you an idea as to how much Florida has changed politically, let’s examine the state voter registration figures. According to the official Secretary of State registration count, at the end of 2018 there were 257,175 more Florida registered Democrats than Republicans. Conversely, at the end of 2024, Republicans claimed 1,156,082 more registrants than Democrats. 

This trend represents a net GOP gain of 1,413,257 self-identified party members during the six-year period, or 5.5 times the size of the Democratic advantage in 2018. As an aside, total registration only rose by 860,513 individuals during the same period. In fact, Democratic affiliation actually dropped by a whopping 496,075 individual units from 2018 through the end of 2024.

The election results during the same six-year period and slightly beyond accentuate the registration numbers.

Turning back to 2016, then-citizen Trump carried Florida against Hillary Clinton by 112,911 votes or just 1.2 percentage points. In 2018, then-Congressman DeSantis and current Senator Scott, who was the sitting Governor at the time, won their statewide contests by 32,463 and 10,033 votes meaning four-tenths of a percent or just over one-tenth of a percent, respectively. In 2020, President Trump again carried Florida, but with a small 3.4% cushion.

Yet in 2022, the margins began to drastically change. Gov. DeSantis posted a victory margin of just under 20 percentage points, and then-Sen. Marco Rubio recorded a win of better than 16 points even while spending $30 million less than his opponent. 

Moving to 2024, President Trump clinched Florida with a 13-point cushion, which translates into a victory spread of more than 1.4 million votes. Such is an improvement greater than 1.2 million tallies when compared to four years earlier.  Sen. Scott then skated to a re-election victory that fell slightly under 1.4 million cast ballots.     

While Florida’s rightward move was certainly driven through voter registration and conservative voters moving to the state from other places, it didn’t take long for the voting patterns to follow suit. Expect this trend to continue in the open 2024 Governor’s race, hence Rep. Donalds’ strategy to lock down the party nomination early will pay major dividends.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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