DeWine Soon to Announce New Senator

Vance successor likely to be named this week

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At a news conference at the end of last week, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (R) indicated that he will "probably" name a replacement for resigned-Sen. J.D. Vance (R) this week.  Mr. Vance, elected Vice President, resigned on Jan. 10 to prepare for his Inauguration.

There has been much speculation around who Gov. DeWine will choose, and he and his staff members have been tight-lipped throughout the process. Local media reports suggest that Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) is the favorite for the appointment, but he has, heretofore, indicated an unwillingness to accept, saying rather that he wants to stay in Ohio to compete in the open 2026 Governor's race. Mr. DeWine is ineligible to seek a third term under the state's term limits law.

Late last week, however, Lt. Gov. Husted seemed more open to a Senate appointment, saying "we're considering all of the options," when asked if he was interested in replacing Sen. Vance.

Whoever the Governor appoints will have to run in a special election to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint when the seat again comes in-cycle. One Democrat waiting in the wings to possibly run again is ex-three term Sen. Sherrod Brown who lost his seat in November to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R).  Mr. Brown has broadly hinted that his career in electoral politics has not yet come to a close.

Other names have been bandied about. According to a report from Cleveland's NewsChannel5.com, the other potential options if Husted decides he wants to remain in the Governor's race include former Ohio Republican Party chair and ex-US Senate candidate Jane Timken, State Treasurer Robert Sprague, former state Rep. Jay Edwards (R) who was chairman of the House Finance Committee, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and ex-state Sen. Matt Dolan (R). The latter two men were unsuccessful 2024 Senate candidates.

Several Ohio US House members would be considered as potential appointees in a typical year, but not in 2025. With the Republicans having only a current 218-215 majority because of a resignation and a presidential appointment, and another coming when Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations, the scant Republican majority is too small for DeWine and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to appoint Representatives to fill their respective Senate vacancies.

Governor DeSantis will appoint a replacement for Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio (R-FL) when the latter man resigns from the Senate after his confirmation is secured.

Mr. Husted will likely get the appointment if he so desires. Back in 2018 when then-Attorney General DeWine was first running for Governor, Mr. Husted, then Secretary of State, and then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor were his major Republican primary opponents. When it appeared that DeWine and Husted would split the moderate/centrist Republican vote, possibly meaning that neither would win the primary, Husted offered DeWine a deal. 

In his suggested approach, Mr. Husted said he would drop down to the Lt. Governor's race and endorse DeWine if the latter man would support him for the secondary position with the two then effectively running as a team. DeWine agreed, and the plan worked.

Though Husted could likely claim the Senate appointment as a political payback if he so chose, the campaign road is not altogether easy. Even with being granted a seat in the Senate, Husted would still have to defend in 2026, and possibly against Sherrod Brown who raised $103+ million in his losing 2024 effort, and then run again for the full term two years later as mentioned above. This means Husted (and any other appointee) would have to be in constant fundraising and campaign mode realistically over four consecutive years.

Considering President-Elect Trump's three consecutive victories in Ohio, including his 11-point win in November, Mr. DeWine winning in 2018 by five percentage points when polling suggested he would lose by that amount, and Vice President-Elect Vance and Sen. Moreno topping the vote in 2022 and 2024, Ohio has turned consistently red. 

Therefore, it is most probable that the newly appointed Senator will be rated as the favorite to win in '26, and most likely in 2028. Yet, constantly being in campaign mode for a long period of time before a big state electorate will not be easy. Of course, competing in a tough open Governor's primary and general election is not a sure-fire draw either.

Ohio will again become a significant political state in the coming elections, with the marathon Senate campaign cycles effectively beginning for real as early as this week when Gov. DeWine is expected to reveal who earns his appointment.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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