Party records major cash advantage for Florida specials
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Two special congressional elections will be decided in the Sunshine State on Tuesday, and if fundraising is any indication, the Democratic nominees are alive in very red districts.
Florida's 1st and 6th CDs are vacant due to the resignation of Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) and Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Both districts are solidly Republican, especially the former.
According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, FL-1 holds a R+38 rating, the strongest of the 20 Republican-held Florida congressional districts. President Trump carried this seat in both 2020 and 2024 with support numbers reaching almost 70%.
Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis is the Republican nominee and is forced to relinquish his statewide position under the state's election law in order to run for another office.
The 6th CD, located on the Atlantic Coast and housing the cities of Daytona Beach, De Land, Ormond Beach and Palm Coast, rates R+28 within the same FiveThirtyEight ranking scale. President Trump, according to The Down Ballot political blog calculations, carried the district with a 65-35% margin in November.
The GOP candidate is state Senator Randy Fine (R-Melbourne), who attracted endorsements from the entire Republican hierarchy, including President Trump, during the party primary that was decided on Jan. 28.
On paper, these seats should be unassailable for the Democrats, but the party's candidates in each district have significantly outraised their respective opponents. In the 1st, Democratic nominee Gay Valimont, an athletic trainer who was the 2024 nominee and lost to Rep. Gaetz 66-34%, collected over $6.6 million through the Federal Election Commission disclosure period ending March 12. This compares with Mr. Patronis' just under $2.2 million in receipts through the same time frame.
The more troubling spot for the GOP is likely the 6th District where the party nominee, Sen. Fine, represents a 19th state Senate District that is over 100 miles from the geographic heart of the 6th CD and has zero crossover population. The Republican leadership, including President Trump, was able to virtually clear the primary field for Fine, but his local contacts are obviously weak since he is a largely unknown political figure in the region.
For his part, Democrat Josh Weil, who bills himself as a "bad ass teacher" in his ads, had raised $9.4 million through March 12, as compared to Fine's $987,000 over the same period. Outside Republican and right-of-center organizations have added more than $2 million in expenditures to help neutralize the Democratic spending advantage.
While the campaign financial numbers are imbalanced, the key to the Republican strategy is turnout since the party enjoys large advantages in voter registration (55 to 21% over the Democrats in the 1st, and 49 to 25% in the 6th) and electoral history. Currently, early and mail voting is underway. For the November general election, 71% of voters in the 1st District voted before election day, as did 73% of 6th District registrants.
In the special election, 51,020 individuals cast a ballot in the special 1st District Republican primary which represents just 13% of the total participation number recorded in the 2024 general election. Because Ms. Valimont was unopposed in the special Democratic primary, no election was held, and she was therefore declared the party nominee.
Turning to the 6th District, just 40,811 people voted in the special Jan. 28 Republican primary and 15,986 for the Democrats meaning a total participation number of 56,797 or just over 13% of the general election total turnout figure.
Therefore, while the Republican turnout was much larger than the Democratic participation factor, the GOP will need to increase their voter turnout rate to a greater degree for the April 1 special general to compensate for the significant resource imbalance that will be used to maximize Democrat and Independent participation.
Though the Democrats have gotten a fundraising boost in these special elections, the overwhelming voter registration figures and electoral history still gives the Republicans huge advantages that will likely carry their nominees to victory in both seats.
Should we see the most improbable of Democratic upsets, and such happening in the 6th District is more probable than with the 1st, political reverberations would be nationally felt and might prove a lynchpin in derailing the Trump agenda, not to mention reducing the already slim House GOP majority margin. Thus, the stakes for Republicans in Tuesday's special elections are becoming extremely high.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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