The 2026 clash to control the upper chamber is getting underway
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Did the Republicans win enough Senate seats in the 2024 election to develop a sustaining majority? It is a question that New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand will now be charged with answering.
This week, Sen. Gillibrand was officially appointed as chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC); as such, she now has the responsibility of engineering her party's comeback strategy and plan. Though the 2026 map appears to favor the Democrats – 22 Republican-held seats will be up for grabs in the mid-terms, versus just 13 held by Democrats – the early odds still favor the GOP.
Two more Senate seats are being added to this cycle once Vice President-Elect JD Vance (R-OH) and Secretary of State-Designate Marco Rubio (R-FL) resign their Senate seats in the coming days. GOP Governors Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will quickly make appointments to fill the seats, but each new Senator will have to run to fill the balance of their respective terms in 2026, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.
With the Republicans winning the Presidency, the Democrats will now be forced to obtain 51 seats to claim majority status, as a 50-50 split would keep the Republicans in control because Vice President Vance will have the power to break ties and tip the balance of power. This means the Democrats will have to retain all 13 of their in-cycle seats in the next election before converting four Republican posts.
While such a task appears daunting at the outset of this election cycle, Senate maps in the early going almost always look to heavily favor the party in power. Retirements could change the picture and create some competitive open seats that don't appear vulnerable at the present time. Looking at the roster, it doesn't appear that there are many obvious retirement candidates in either party, but personal situations can dictate a change in such status.
Most expect former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to retire, leaving the Kentucky seat open. Should Gov. Andy Beshear (D) run in an open situation, Democrats would certainly have a strong candidate with which to compete. For the Democrats, New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen says she will decide in the coming weeks whether to seek a fourth term. Her 2020 opponent, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) – who Sen. Shaheen defeated 57-41% – is already talking about mounting another challenge.
Perhaps Gillibrand's most difficult incumbent defense is first-term Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who is already building a re-election campaign apparatus. Should term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) challenge Ossoff, this will become the Republicans' best conversion opportunity and prove a key election in determining the next majority.
In terms of vulnerable Republicans, Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy may top the list. With the state changing back to a partisan primary system, Mr. Cassidy has already drawn a credible GOP challenger in state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming. More individuals may enter the Republican primary, thus forcing the possibility of a runoff that could doom the incumbent. Should former Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards decide to run for the Senate, Sen. Cassidy would then face a tough general election even if he survives the primary challenge.
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) says he will run for a third term, and another close campaign can be expected. This will certainly be true if former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) decides to run. He will be a top recruitment target for Sen. Gillibrand. This week, Mr. Cooper confirmed he is considering the Senate race and will decide officially "in the coming months." Former US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D), who didn't seek a second term in the House because of an adverse new redistricting map, is already an announced candidate.
Maine Sen. Susan Collins has already said she will run for a fifth term. In 2020, the Democrats spent record sums of money against Ms. Collins, even to the point of their candidate, then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon, holding over $9 million in her campaign account simply because there was nothing left to buy. Senator Collins survived the financial onslaught with a nine-point win.Â
With Ms. Collins back on the ballot and the Democrats' best available candidate, US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) unlikely to challenge her, with an open Governor's race on the ballot, the Democrats' task of converting Maine becomes more difficult.
Understanding that Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system survived a repeal ballot proposition by just 737 votes, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) has a potentially more challenging re-election battle. The Democrats' best potential candidate is just-defeated US Rep. Mary Peltola, but an open Governor's race will likely be more attractive to her since she would capture the party nomination with little opposition. Unless Gillibrand can convince Peltola to run for the Senate, the Democrats face long odds of beating Sen. Sullivan.
Democrats do look like they have a credible potential candidate to challenge Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R). State Auditor Rob Sand (D) has won two close statewide elections and is apparently open to running for the Senate. Iowa has turned more Republican during the Trump era so Sen. Ernst will be difficult to unseat, but expect the Democrats to make a major effort here.
The 2026 Senate cycle will be competitive, but with the GOP getting to 53 seats in the 2024 election, and the Democrats now needing 51 to reclaim their lost majority, Republicans begin what should be a difficult election cycle in much better position.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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