California Dreamin'

Slim chances the Golden State will go red in 2026

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An article from the News of the United States (NOTUS) organization published earlier this week sheds new light on a potential 2026 Governor's race in California. 

In fact, the article includes comments from several of the Golden State's GOP House members, who state their belief that Republican Ric Grenell might have an outside chance of denying Kamala Harris the office if both choose to run next year.

Mr. Grenell is a Trump Administration official who currently serves as a special envoy, as well as president and interim executive director of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Previously, in the first Trump Administration, Mr. Grenell was the US Ambassador to Germany and served as the Acting Director of National Intelligence. He has indicated that running for Governor of California, if Ms. Harris were to enter the race, would be of interest.

"I think that we've got a good opportunity here because especially if Kamala Harris runs I think that this will be a race that is very winnable," says US Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/ Sacramento). "I think that there very much is a coalition of Californians who would support a candidate who can deliver on that basic quality of life."

Representative Kiley is likely too optimistic. While President Trump substantially improved his political standing within California, Kamala Harris still recorded a 58.5 – 38.3% statewide victory. In 2020, Joe Biden's victory spread over Mr. Trump was 63.5 – 34.3%. 

In 2020, Mr. Trump won 23 of California's 58 counties. In 2024, he performed much better, actually winning a majority of the state's counties (33 of 58). His problem: in the top ten most populous counties, Mr. Trump prevailed in only three. 

Of the top three population counties – Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange, which account for 40% of the total California population – Mr. Trump was only able to average 39.7% of the vote. While this number is slightly better than his statewide percentage, the major liberal northern California counties of San Francisco, Alameda, San Mateo, Marin and Santa Clara are not included in the top three most populous. Here, the current President averaged only 20.9% of the vote.

In 2020, Mr. Trump's average numbers in the three largest counties were even worse: 36.3%. In the five sizable northern California counties, he posted a woeful mean average vote percentage of just 18.3.

While the chances of Mr. Grenell, or any other Republican, winning the Governorship in 2026 are virtually nil, Mr. Trump did increase his standing when compared to 2020 in 57 counties, which is an encouraging number for the GOP. Ms. Harris also underperformed President Biden's California vote totals in all but one county.

While the general election may be out of reach for a Republican, advancing from the state's jungle primary apparatus is not. 

Former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) has already announced that she will run for Governor. While earlier saying she would stand aside for Ms. Harris, her announcement tour made no such declaration. Therefore, if she and Harris are on the all-party ballot with a Republican such as Mr. Grenell, it certainly would be within the realm of possibility to see either Porter or Harris not qualify for the general election. Under such a scenario, the primary voters would virtually elect the next Governor.

The other California Republican problem is the large amount of money needed to compete. Former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) was able to advance into the 2024 Senate general election largely because eventual winner Adam Schiff (D) ran ads in the more conservative regions of the state attacking Garvey as being too conservative and close to Mr. Trump. 

Knowing that he would beat Garvey, or any other Republican in the general election, Mr. Schiff virtually financed Garvey's campaign effort to propel him past Ms. Porter, who at that time was also running for Senate.

It is unlikely that we will see such a scenario in 2026. Therefore, Republicans will be forced to raise a large amount of early money to help secure a general election slot and then hope that the political environment would be such that a GOP candidate could score a long shot win. With so many Senate races in play during this election cycle, it will be a tough sell to convince national major donors to back a Republican gubernatorial contender.

While Mr. Grenell may be one of the better candidates that California Republicans could attract, his chances of winning are likely far less than those beginning to promote him would publicly concede.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

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Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty