Another Senator Stepping Down

Senator Jeanne Shaheen to retire

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Three-term New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) announced on Wednesday that she will not seek re-election next year, ending what will be a 30-year career in elective politics, counting her time as Governor and in the state Senate.

Ms. Shaheen is now the fourth Senator, three of whom are Democrats, who will not seek re-election in 2026. While the national Senate map favors the Dems because they only must protect 13 of 35 in-cycle campaigns, having to defend three open seats, all of which are competitive (Minnesota, New Hampshire) to highly competitive (Michigan) decreases the party's odds of reclaiming the Senate majority.

Senator Shaheen is the first woman in American history to be elected as a Governor and US Senator. In 1990, she first won her state Senate seat from southeastern New Hampshire; she served three two-year terms. Elected Governor in 1996, she would again maintain her office for three two-year terms. 

Attempting to move to the Senate in 2002, Ms. Shaheen lost to then-Rep. John E. Sununu (R) and was out of elective politics until 2008, when she returned to win that same Senate seat, defeating Mr. Sununu in a re-match. 

In her three victorious Senate elections, Ms. Shaheen averaged 53.2% of the vote.  Though not seeking re-election in 2026, Sen. Shaheen vows she is "not retiring." She will serve the remainder of the current term and continue being an activist after she leaves office, according to her statements in yesterday's video announcement.

The Shaheen decision is not particularly surprising. The Senator had not committed to running again and repeatedly said she would decide at a later date. A Pracones Analytica poll released last week, however, found her trailing former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) by eight percentage points – with more than 60% responding that they are concerned or somewhat concerned about the Senator's age if she were to seek another six-year term. Senator Shaheen, if she were to run in 2026 and serve through 2032, would be 85 years of age.

Previously, Mr. Sununu indicated he was not interested in running for the Senate, but just recently, he stated that he might be reconsidering his position. Now that the seat will be open, Republican leaders will engage a "full court press" to recruit the former four-term Governor into the Senate race. For the Democrats, the leading prospective candidate appears to be four-term 1st District US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). 

First elected in 2018, Mr. Pappas has secured the eastern New Hampshire seat that was once considered the most competitive district in the nation, defeating more incumbents than re-electing them from 2004 until Mr. Pappas' victory in 2018. Other potential Democratic candidates include former US Rep. Annie Kuster and, potentially, freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) – though she would likely yield to Pappas if he decides to run. 

Should Mr. Sununu not run, expect former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown to possibly make another attempt at returning to the Senate from New Hampshire. In 2014, he challenged Sen. Shaheen, but lost 51-48%. Other potential Republican candidates are Manchester Mayor Jay Ruais and Executive Councilor Janet Stevens. Governor Kelly Ayotte (R), a former US Senator who was defeated for re-election in 2016 but then elected Governor in 2024, would be likely to seek re-election instead of a return to the Senate.

Chris Sununu became only the second person to win four consecutive Governors' elections in New Hampshire. His Senate candidacy would clearly give the Republicans their best chance of converting the seat. With another Republican as the party standard bearer, Democrats would again have the advantage in the general election.

Should Rep. Pappas run, count on a major effort from both parties to capture the swing 1st District. With such a small House majority, both parties will be striving to win every possible seat, and the NH-1 seat becoming open, noting the region's long history of flipping between the two parties, means that we will see a major national campaign being fought in this CD.

With the Shaheen retirement, the New Hampshire political musical chairs show will soon begin. This open Senate seat, and what could be a highly-competitive open House district, means the Granite State will become one of the key battleground regions in the 2026 midterm election.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

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