Another Blow for Senate Dems

Minnesota's Tina Smith is bowing out

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In a shock announcement on Thursday, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) revealed that she will retire when the current term expires and not seek re-election in 2026. 

In an open letter, Sen. Smith stated that "as much as I love my work, I'm fortunate enough to be able to say that my work is only part of what makes up my life. And after two decades of hard, rewarding work in public service, I'm ready to prioritize other things – starting with my family."

Ms. Smith is the second Senate incumbent, and second Democrat, to forgo re-election in 2026. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) last week announced that he would not stand for a third term. Tina Smith, then Minnesota's Lt. Governor, was appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Al Franken (D) resigned under a scandal cloud. She was elected in her own right in 2020, defeating former Congressman Jason Lewis (R) with a closer than expected 49-44% victory margin.

Most likely, the early attention about who might run to succeed Sen. Smith will center around Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. Minnesota has no statewide term limits, and there has already been much discussion as to whether Mr. Walz would seek a third term. To date, the Governor has not made public his 2026 political intentions. Now, expect the political conjecture to revolve around whether Gov. Walz will run for the Senate.

Speculation about other potential Democratic contenders will likely include US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) and even possibly former Senator Franken, among others. It is probable that the Democratic political community will be frozen, however, until Gov. Walz makes a decision regarding his own political future.

The Republican side has less obvious candidates since the party holds no statewide positions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. In fact, the last Republican US Senate victory here occurred in 2002 when Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale after the death of Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone less than a month before the November election.

Earlier in the week, Jim Schutz, who lost the 2022 Attorney General race by less than a percentage point, indicated that he would consider a potential gubernatorial bid. With a Senate seat now open, Mr. Schultz would have to be considered a possible federal office contender.

Speculation will undoubtedly include the state's four Republican US Representatives: Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano), Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal), and Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth). It is probable all will remain in their current positions since a statewide run is a well under 50/50 victory proposition for any Republican candidate.

Another GOP name that may surface is that of former Governor Tim Pawlenty, who served from 2003-2011. Still only 64 years of age, Mr. Pawlenty may be in position for a political comeback.

At the end of the day, the Democrats will be favored to hold the Senate seat, but their statewide victory margins are thinning.

Even with Mr. Walz on the national Democratic ticket, the party's 2024 Minnesota victory margin dropped to 4.2 percentage points in comparison with the result from the previous four years. In 2020, President Biden carried the state with a 7.1-point spread. The state was closer in 2016. Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump here with only a 1.5 percent margin. In the immediate previous election cycles the Democratic victory result was much larger. President Obama won Minnesota with 7.6 (2012) and 10.3 (2008) percent point spreads. 

The Smith retirement now means we can add Minnesota to the list of highly combative 2026 political battleground states.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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