Replacing Marco Rubio may prove to be a complicated affair
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The anticipated confirmation of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) as the United States' next Secretary of State is likely to launch a wave of political musical chairs in the Sunshine State.
Governor Ron DeSantis (R) will choose a replacement Senator once Mr. Rubio is officially confirmed. It is expected that Sen. Rubio will be one of the first Trump cabinet nominees to complete the Senate confirmation process. Upon receiving his vote, the Senator will immediately resign from his current position; at that point, Gov. DeSantis will announce his replacement appointment.
According to a declaration this week, the newly-appointed Senator will likely face Republican primary opposition in the next election. US Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) has said he will enter the Senate primary regardless of whom Gov. DeSantis appoints to replace Mr. Rubio.
Mr. Mills knows he will not receive the appointment. He confirms that the Governor has not interviewed him for the position, as has been the case with other GOP members of the Florida US House delegation. Mr. DeSantis, a former Congressman, is concerned about the slim Republican majority in the body and will not reduce the margin even further by choosing a House member.
President-Elect Trump has already picked two Florida US Representatives for appointments. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz was selected as Attorney General, but his nomination was met with strong opposition in the Senate, and it became obvious that he would not be confirmed. Thus, Mr. Gaetz removed himself from consideration for the cabinet position, but only after he resigned from the House.
Representative Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) – chosen as President-Elect Trump's National Security Advisor – has indicated that he will officially resign from Congress on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20. His position does not require Senate confirmation so he can assume his new position immediately upon Mr. Trump being officially sworn into office.
Governor DeSantis has scheduled the two Florida US House special elections concurrently, with the primary election coming already on Jan. 28. The special general for both the Gaetz and Waltz districts will be held April 1. When Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is confirmed as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, she will also resign from the House. This will take the partisan division down to 217R – 215D, hence the reason that Gov. DeSantis will not consider taking another House member for his Senate appointment.
The slim US House majority, however, is apparently not stopping Rep. Mills from running for the Senate in 2026. The second-term Congressman already has said that he will challenge whoever is appointed in the statewide Republican primary, and fight to win the seat. Doing so will open another Florida US House seat in the regular general election.
The special elections have already caused another opening. Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) is a candidate for the Gaetz seat in the special congressional election, and is expected to win. Under Florida's resign-to-run rule, Mr. Petronis has relinquished his position, thus giving Gov. DeSantis another position to fill.
Turning to Mr. Rubio's soon-to-be open Senate seat, betting odds suggest that state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) will be DeSantis' choice. She is close to the Governor and has twice proven she can win a Florida statewide election. In 2018, Ms. Moody, a former circuit judge, was elected Attorney General with 52.1% of the general election vote. In 2022, she increased her vote share to 60.6%. If appointed, Ms. Moody would run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and then have the opportunity of campaigning for a full six-year term in 2028.
Now, it appears that she (or another, if DeSantis chooses a different individual) will not only have to run in '26 and '28, but a 2026 primary challenge will also be added to the succeeding individual's political card. Therefore, the person chosen will be forced to compete in several statewide election campaigns over a relatively short period, thus adding major fundraising pressure to the individual's substantial legislative responsibilities.
To further complicate the political musical chairs situation, should Gov. DeSantis select Ms. Moody, he will then have another appointment to make, i.e., filling her vacated position as Florida Attorney General. If the Governor chooses a member of the state legislature to fill either the CFO or Attorney General's position, he will then have to schedule further special elections to replace those individuals.
While 2025 is an off-year, the world of filling political positions either through election or appointment won't see any down time. With Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) in a similar position regarding choosing a replacement for Vice President-Elect JD Vance now that the latter man has resigned from the Senate, the early 2025 political environment is anything but quiet.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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Excellent recap.